Batch assay result near the lower limit
A manufacturing team observed an average assay result just under 96% for a large batch of product. This was technically within the specification range but noticeably below the long-term trend, which had been close to 100%. The question was not simply “pass or fail,” but:
- We translated the concern into a one-sided statistical question: with known assay variability (on the order of 1%), what sample size is needed to achieve a pre-specified confidence level that the true batch mean is above a minimum acceptable value?
- Using standard sampling theory and conservative assumptions, we derived the smallest sample size that would yield roughly 99% confidence that the true mean is not below the critical threshold, assuming the observed average holds up on retesting.
- We provided a simple decision rule: if the re-sampled mean and variability remained within defined bounds, the batch could be released with clearly documented statistical justification.